Tuesday, July 9, 2019


So now we wait for this...

Gulf of Mexico weather: Disturbance has 80 percent chance of development; models shift West

Above is what the weather people call a "Spaghetti Model".  It's what we have as "predictions" for tropical activity as it develops.  Weather computers are fed the data and they spit out a track of what they predict will happen.  Each computer model uses different algorithms to calculate the end result and that's why they meander around.  As a storm gets closer to landfall the models all come into alignment due to the shorter forecast.  

Right now this is an upper level disturbance that is IN the United States but will move out into the Gulf.  After that, the forecasts show it strengthening into a tropical disturbance of some sort and moving in this general direction.  You can see the models do end over several different locations but at this point we are supposed to look at the "general trends" to see what they agree on.  Seems they agree that it will be moving more toward the West with each passing run.

The forecast doesn't yet say if it will just be a tropical depression or a storm.  Seems most likely to just be a minor tropical storm at worst.  But those can bring a lot of rain and if it does make it here, it will arrive Saturday afternoon/evening.

Doubtful it could become a hurricane this quickly, though we did have one hit here in 1983. Hurricane Alicia, which started as just a few thunderstorms in the Gulf, quickly spun up into a dangerous Cat 3 hurricane and hit a few days later. There is precedent. They don't all come off the coast of Africa.

I may need to make sure I mow Saturday just in case we have 10 inches of rain on Sunday.

We're always ready, whatever it brings!


  1. Hopefully the weather will remain a tropical depression!

  2. I am counting on nothing bad happening. It rains every afternoon in the state. But, it is short-lived. If this all comes together, it will bring constant rain, I fear.

  3. i was just checking on this before i came to your blog today. the last thing we need is a lot of rain! i hope you don't get too much if it heads to you.

  4. ew! hope it doesn't amount to anything!

  5. Hoping this doesn't develop into anything bad. It's hurricane season for the next 2.5 months :(

  6. Just stay safe, no matter what it becomes

  7. Wed. evening we had severe storms that moved down from the Red River of which we received 70mph winds, heavy rain and some where without power.
    Woke up Thursday morning looking at some of the damage that we had here so spent most of the day cleaning up, repairing the roof, etc.
    I must say, living in a mobile home and getting up to 70mph winds is no fun. Scared the holy crap out of me.


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